Tracy R. Twyman on That Was the Month That Wasn’t

August 20, 2011

Andy Colvin

A short time ago I appeared on the program That Was the Month that Wasn’t with Andrew Colvin and Vyzygoth to talk about alchenomics.

One Response to Tracy R. Twyman on That Was the Month That Wasn’t

  1. Wictor on November 26, 2014 at 12:55 am

    It’s amazing to me how often peploe will read a paper that has measured some value given with a 95% confidence interval and conclude that we know with 95% certainty that the real value lies somewhere within it.QBeamus This came up in a previous thread. I would say that the above statement is an inelegant and imprecise way of saying something that is basically true, at least under most circumstances. I would rephrase it more accurately as follows: If the data are valid and if there is no other information available about a parameter that has a true but unknown value, then the 95 percent CI allows us to conclude that if we judge the value to be within that interval, there is a 95 percent probability that we will be correct. The meaning of the CI is typically stated to be that 95 percent of the CIs calculated according to our procedure will include the true value. That statement is usually equivalent to the one I wrote above, because we could consider the CI we are working with to have been drawn randomly from a population of CIs and therefore to have a 95 percent probability of including the parameter. It would not be true if we had additional information about the value that allowed us to construct an informative Bayesian prior, but under most circumstances, we don’t.I’m not sure I see why this is relevant to probability intervals.

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